Dow futures drop 400 points as Iranian war tensions escalate: Live updates - CNBC

The three major averages closed Monday's session in negative territory.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.24% to end the day at 7,109.14, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26% to finish at 24,404.39. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 4.87 points, or 0.01%, to 49,442.56.

— Sean Conlon

While investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, it won't be long before they completely shift their focus toward other matters, according to Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity.

"It is important to remember that the market was not cheap before the war started, and the recent rally has only brought us back slightly past breakeven for the year," he said. "We expect investors will soon once again turn their attention to more fundamental issues – valuations, earnings potential, inflation, the economy, the labor markets, and Fed policy."

— Sean Conlon

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 20, 2026 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

At this point, the stock market appears to have largely overlooked the Iran war and its associated risks.

But in a Monday note, Claudio Irigoyen, Bank of America's global economist, cautioned that investors may be too quick to overlook these potential risks.

"Why is the U.S. stock market trading back at pre-war levels? We think the stock market is extrapolating the trade war playbook (i.e. the escalate to de-escalate strategy) to the Iran war. This means that as the administration signals de-escalation, markets price a quick resolution, with limited impact on growth and some impact on inflation, hence interest rates remain higher," Irigoyen wrote in the note to clients. "But the risk with the war is that de-escalation is no longer a unilateral move, and the market may be underpricing that risk."

— Lisa Kailai Han

Canaccord Genuity in a Monday note explained that the conflict in the Middle East will need to continue fading from headlines and tech companies have to deliver big earnings for the market to keep punching higher.

U.S. equities have rallied on the belief that the U.S.-Iran war will be resolved soon, and that the Strait of Hormuz will have normal traffic flows resume relatively quickly too. However, with such a positive picture priced in, analyst Michael Graham noted there is risk if reality starts to contradict that bet. 

"There seems to be a risk that any step off of this de-escalation pathway could lead to a temporary, short-term pause or reversal in these trends," he wrote.

He added that after strong earnings from big banks, all eyes are on mega-cap tech earnings. Tesla is the first "Magnificent Seven" stock to deliver results, reporting on Wednesday after the bell.

— Davis Giangiulio

Psychedelic stocks surged on Monday after President Donald Trump announced an executive order aimed at increasing access to the drug type as a mental health treatment.

Compass shares surged more than 38%, on track for its best day on record. AtaiBeckley shares climbed more than 22%, which would mark its biggest one-day gain since July.

Compass and AtaiBeckley, 1-day

CNBC Pro subscribers can click here to read more on what Wall Street expects for the sector.

— Alex Harring

Early, assertive price hikes could boost earnings in the second half of the year for Ecolab, according to Deutsche Bank.

The firm upgraded shares of the sanitation and water technologies provider to buy from hold, it said in a note Monday. It held its price target of $325, implying upside of 18%.

"Ecolab's early and aggressive price increases to offset higher energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict, coupled with the recent pullback in oil prices as the conflict winds down, has the potential to drive earnings upside in the back half of the year on widening price / cost differentials," analyst David Begleiter said in a note Monday.

Shares were last higher by almost 1%.

— Tanaya Macheel

A Ross store in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026. Ross Stores Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on March 3.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

On Monday, 35 stocks in the S&P 500 traded at new 52-week highs.

Tickers that hit this milestone included:

• eBay trading at all-time high levels back to its IPO in September 1998
• Ross Stores trading at all-time high levels since its IPO in August 1985
• Target trading at levels not seen since February 2025
• State Street trading at all-time high levels back through our history to 1972
• GE Vernova trading at all-time highs back to its spin-off from GE in April 2024
• JB Hunt Transport trading at all-time high levels back to its IPO in 1983
• Advanced Micro Devices trading at all-time high levels back to its IPO in September 1972
• Arista Networks trading at all-time high levels back to its IPO in June 2014
• Dell Technologies trading at all-time highs back to its relisting in December 2018
• Texas Instruments trading at all-time highs back to when it first began trading in 1953
• Freeport-McMoRan trading at all-time highs back its listing on the NYSE in May 1988

— Lisa Kailai Han and Christopher Hayes

Michael Dell, Chairman and CEO of Dell Technologies, speaking at CNBC's Invest In America Forum in Washington, D.C. on April 15th, 2026.

Aaron Clamage | CNBC

Melius Research doubled down on its Buy rating for Dell on Monday, raising its two-year target share price to $245 from $200.

Analysts see demand for AI servers growing and Dell's share of that demand increasing.

"We are raising our estimates and target for Dell due to our view that it's a share gainer in servers – and storage will benefit too. Agentic AI should drive a halo effect into the enterprise, helping its multiple," head technology researcher Ben Reitzes and colleagues wrote to investors in a Monday note.

Dell stands to gain from a Department of Justice indictment against competitor Supermicro (SMCI) that was unsealed in March.

Server maker Supermicro co-founder Wally Liaw was charged with allegedly conspiring to smuggle servers and integrated AI technology into China, and Dell is positioned to swallow up some of its market share, Melius analysts wrote.

"Street estimates had SMCI shipping roughly $47B of AI servers over the next four quarters, and we think a portion of that is now actively in motion toward alternative vendors," they said. "How in the world can Nvidia and/or AMD trust those guys now? You just can't mess around with sales into China and risk government scrutiny."

If Dell captures a third of SMCI's expected sales over the next year, it could contribute an extra $1 to annual EPS, they speculated.

Computing power in advanced AI hardware is important enough that its "transfer to China poses an unacceptable risk to national security," according to the Department of Justice.

Melius increased their EPS estimate for Dell for fiscal year 2029 by 7% to $18.84.

— Tobias Burns

Gold pure gold bar models captured in Shanghai, China on March 15, 2026.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

Morgan Stanley is pulling down its outlook for gold, which has underperformed since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Analysts see it rising to $5,200 per ounce off its current level around $4,830 in the second half of 2026, down from a previous bull-case estimate of $5,700.

"We remain constructive on gold but with less upside than before," Morgan Stanley commodities strategist Amy Gower and others wrote Monday.

The risk of higher energy prices passing through into core inflation measurements, thereby lowering the chances of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is a primary reason for the downgrade.

"With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower Fed rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time," analysts wrote in a Monday note to investors.

They also noted the outsized performance of gold in the run up to the conflict, a reason that the recent sell-off was so substantial. Gold has fallen around 8.5 percent since the start of the war.

Morgan Stanley economists are still expecting two rate cuts this year from the Fed, which is currently projecting only one.

The double cut scenario "should benefit gold, with ETFs particularly sensitive to policy direction and gold now realigning with real rates," Gower and colleagues wrote.

"Gold has reconnected with real yields" and is "likely to stay sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside ahead," they added.

— Tobias Burns

A view of an Ulta Beauty store on Aug. 28, 2025 in Novato, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Ulta Beauty is likely to rally as the chain store shifts its corporate strategy to better differentiate itself from rivals and capitalize on continued demand for beauty products, according to Jefferies.

The investment firm upgraded the cosmetics giant to buy from hold. It also raised its price target on shares to $700 from $635, suggesting 26.5% upside from Friday's close.

"Confidence [has] improve[d] in revenue durability amid a broadening beauty backdrop and renewed makeup engagement," analyst Sydney Wagner said in a note. "Improved brand newness and merch execution better position ULTA to capitalize on the cycle, while ... expectations have been reset to a more realistic framework."

Ulta shares, 1-year

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Liz Napolitano

It's time to step to the sidelines on Vale now that the Brazil-based metal and mining company closed its valuation gap to peers, according to Barclays.

Analyst Amos Fletcher downgraded the producer of iron ore and nickel to equal weight from overweight after its massive rally this year, with the stock up 34% year to date, suggested future gains are now capped.

"Vale no longer trades at a material discount to Australian peers following recent outperformance – EV/EBITDA discount to peers now sits at 10%, the tightest since 2020," Fletcher wrote Monday. He was referring to a measure of Enterprise Value (EV) to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) that is used to measure how cheap a stock is relative to its competitors.

Vale, 1-day

The analyst's $17 price target is slightly below the $17.78 the stock closed at on Friday. The stock was last slightly lower in premarket trading.

— Sarah Min

Stocks traded lower on Monday morning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 51 points, or 0.1%, shortly after the opening bell. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, along with the Nasdaq Composite.

— Sean Conlon

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 17, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

• Rapid, persistent rallies like the one that's taken the S&P 500 on a three-week win streak tend not to be flukes or head fakes. Indexes breaking out to new highs tend to be more bullish on a forward-looking basis than negative.
• That said, the tape seems overheated in the near term. At a minimum it should cool off with cyclicals that ripped Friday on Strait-opening headlines due to pull back. Though arguably the market can handle ambiguous peace-talk headlines so long as oil remains well off recent highs. Bulls will want the 7,000 level to hold to preserve the breakout.
•  It's still a top-heavy move with the equal-weight indexes not quite back to old highs and S&P 500 Value still off 1%. And the furious comeback of speculative pockets of the market show an impulse to grab for lower-quality, higher-volatility vehicles to "get it back fast." Retail traders and systematic hedge funds were shaken out in the correction and found themselves under-exposed to the rebound, so money and risk appetites are flowing toward racier stocks (CRWV, SNDK, BE all up ~50% month to date).
• Only about half the decline in S&P 500 forward P/E from high to low has been recovered, due to the persistent rise in profit forecasts. Still, the upgrades to earnings estimates have been very lumpy, with tech (semis) and energy accounting for most. So far, we've seen a familiar "sell the news" reaction to even good results; watching this week to see if this persists.

— Mike Santoli

Several virtual coins including a Bitcoin and Ethereum on March 25, 2025.

Romain Costaseca | Hans Lucas | AFP | Getty Images

Bitcoin and ether ticked higher to start the week, trading at about $75,000 and $2,300, respectively — while crypto-connected equities fell in premarket trading, catching up to the cryptocurrency's decline over the weekend amid heightened U.S.–Iran tensions.

Ether treasury company Bitmine was lower by more than 3%. Circle lost nearly 3%, and Coinbase and Strategy fell 1% each.

On Friday, bitcoin rose above the $78,000 level for the first time since February. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day net inflows, about $664 million collectively, since January.

Elsewhere, Strategy on Monday morning reported it bought $2.5 billion worth of bitcoin last week.

— Tanaya Macheel

The earnings season intensifies this week, with one "Magnificent Seven" member and an aerospace giant set to report.

Tesla and Boeing are among the 88 S&P 500 companies scheduled to post results. Others on deck include United Airlines and chipmaker Intel.

So far, the reporting period has been strong. Per FactSet, of the roughly 50 companies that have released their quarterly numbers, about 86% have posted better-than-expected earnings.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the earnings on deck this week here.

— Fred Imbert

10-year yield, 1-day

Check out the companies making the biggest moves premarket:

• Marvell Technology, Broadcom — Shares jumped more than 7% after a report by The Information said the company is in talks with Google to build two new AI chips. Broadcom, which recently agreed to produce future versions of Google's AI chips, fell nearly 1.5% on the report.
• TopBuild — The installer and distributor of insulation materials jumped more than 17% after QXO announced it would acquire the company for $17 billion. In a release, QXO said said the acquisition will create a higher-margin business and it will be immediately accretive to the company's earnings.
• Crypto-related stocks — The group fell after bitcoin prices declined more than 4% over the weekend, though they recovered some losses in Monday trading and were back above $75,000. Online trading platforms Robinhood and Coinbase fell more than 2%. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy declined nearly 2.5%.

Read the full list here.

— Davis Giangiulio

A Delta Airlines plane lands at Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., on Friday, Dec. 24, 2021.

Eric Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Airlines fall

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday, as investors continued to keep a cautious eye on developments in the Middle East amid renewed Iran-U.S. tensions.

South Korea's Kospi pared earlier gains, ending Monday's session 0.44% higher while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.41%. SK Hynix was among the best performers on the Kospi Index, rising over 3% following news that it had started mass production of next-gen AI server memory designed for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform.

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.60% to 58,824.89, while the Topix gained 0.43% to 3,777.02. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was little changed at 8,953.30.

Mainland China's CSI 300 index added 0.61% at 4,757.44, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 0.77% higher at 26,361.07.

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an 11th straight month, as escalating Middle East tensions drive energy prices higher and weigh on its growth outlook.

West Texas Intermediate futures added 6.49% to $89.29 per barrel as of 3:35 a.m. ET. Brent crude rose 6.34% higher to $96.12 per barrel.

— Justina Lee

Sun, Apr 19 20269:50 PM EDT

A camera crew films a display of the Nikkei Stock Average near the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo on April 20, 2026.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher Monday, as investors continue to keep a cautious eye on developments in the Middle East amid renewed tensions between Iran and the U.S.

The seizure is an escalation of the blockade and comes after Iran fired upon commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz earlier Sunday. Trump warned on Sunday he would "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if Tehran did not agree to Washington's terms to end the conflict.

South Korea's Kospi extended early gains and was higher at 1.19% while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.14%. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.88%, while the Topix gained 0.63%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was flat.

Mainland China's CSI 300 index was marginally lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 0.22% higher.

China held its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an 11th straight month, as escalating Middle East tensions drove energy prices higher and weighed on the growth outlook.

The decision came after the world's second-largest economy grew 5% in the first quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter, and at the top end of its full-year target range. Beijing lowered its growth target for 2026 to a range of 4.5% to 5%, the least ambitious goal on record since the 1990s.

Oil futures pared earlier gains. West Texas Intermediate futures added 6.14% to $89 per barrel as of 9:35 p.m. ET. Brent crude rose 5.51% higher to $95.36 per barrel.

— Justina Lee

Sun, Apr 19 20266:12 PM EDT

Sun, Apr 19 20266:08 PM EDT

Ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman, April 18, 2026.

Stringer | Reuters

The U.S. struck and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, President Donald Trump said Sunday.

In a post to Truth Social, the president said the U.S. intercepted a ship called the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman and gave it a warning to stop. The vessel was fired upon when it did not stop. The U.S. has been operating a naval blockade of ships entering and exiting Iranian ports since last week.

"The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom," Trump said in the post. "Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity."

Read more here.

— Garrett Downs

Sun, Apr 19 20266:04 PM EDT